Today the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the December 2025 edition of its Economic Outlook. The report maintains Chile’s GDP growth projection for 2025 at 2.4%, unchanged from the June outlook. However, the OECD revised down its forecast for 2026, from 2.4% in June to 2.2% in the current report.

For 2025, while the headline GDP forecast remains unchanged, the OECD revised upward several key components: private consumption, from 2.3% to 2.7%; gross fixed capital formation (investment), from 2.2% to 6.8%; and domestic demand, from 2.6% to 4.9% between reports published in June and December.

The OECD now expects exports to close at 3.5% this year and imports expand to 11.3%. In the previous outlook, exports had been projected to grow 7.1% and imports 8.2%. The downward revision to export growth is likely linked to lower mining output due to major investment projects underway at large deposits, which are simultaneously driving higher imports of machinery and equipment.

For 2026, while the GDP forecast is lowered by 0.2 percentage points, the report also upgrades key demand components: private consumption (from 1.5% to 1.7%); gross fixed capital formation (from 2.7% to 5.1%); and domestic demand (from 2.1% to 2.6%). Exports are expected to grow 1.3% next year and imports 2.4%, reflecting similar drivers to those seen in 2025.

In this regard, the OECD notes that “the revival of the investment pipeline—particularly in mining, energy, and related capital goods—will support growth. Exports are projected to contribute moderately, with export growth recovering in 2026 and 2027, while import growth is expected to slow sharply.”

On the current economic situation, the report emphasizes that “real GDP grew 1.6% in the third quarter of 2025, driven by domestic demand, which expanded 5.8% year-on-year. Investment was boosted by machinery and equipment, while private consumption benefited from strong real wage growth. Consumer and business confidence remain relatively high, and financing conditions have recently eased. Headline inflation fell to 3.4% in October, within the Central Bank’s target range.”

On fiscal convergence, the OECD acknowledges that “the Government has outlined a fiscal consolidation plan for 2025–27 (…) and a sustained consolidation of around 1% of GDP is expected over the period, through a balanced combination of moderate growth in current spending—mainly administrative and non-social—and increased fiscal revenues resulting from tax-base-broadening measures and strengthened anti-evasion enforcement.”

It adds, however, that “full compliance with the fiscal rule will require firm implementation of spending restraint and revenue-enhancing measures.”
The OECD also highlights the recently enacted Framework Law on Sectoral Permits, expected to “streamline procedures, reduce costs, and decrease processing times and uncertainty,” as well as Chile’s rapid progress in Digital Government, which “can be leveraged to deliver faster and better public services.”

On this point, Minister of Finance Nicolás Grau stated: “One aspect that is particularly important because it reflects the long-term growth capacity we are passing on to the country and to the next administration is the OECD’s emphasis on the approval of the Framework Law on Sectoral Permits. This law will allow us to reduce processing times without lowering regulatory standards. Overall, these are positive signals that reflect the country’s macro-fiscal discipline while strengthening its long-term growth capacity.”

On the international environment, the OECD notes that Chile’s terms of trade have improved, driven by stronger global demand for copper and by easing geopolitical tensions that have lowered oil prices. The report also underscores that the effect of U.S. tariffs announced by President Donald Trump should be limited for Chile, given the exemption of copper and timber from those duties. It concludes that “Chile’s membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and relatively low effective U.S. tariff rates could bolster export growth to other markets if trade tensions in the United States intensify.”